Sunday, June 9, 2019

Investing in a Story about Dumb Luck

I've always been surprised that people seem to respect rich people or people in positions of authority. There's an assumption that they deserve it or earned it or something.   I've never really felt that; Something has always bothered me when people try to explain it all to me - it just seems a bit too... random...

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Vindicated!

Just read this article recently in the MIT Tech magazine: Luck is the best model for why some people experience success / get rich and others don't.  Luck is a more important factor than smarts, hard work, or talent!  How can this be?

I think these misconceptions about how the world works comes down to the fact we are hardwired to be story-tellers.  We need and crave to tell ourselves stories about why things are the way they are.

That person got rich through hard work, talent, and/or smarts is a much better story that "He was in the right place at the right time with the right stuff."

Now, don't give up on your own education and start frequenting casinos!  The MIT article is really about the phenomenally successful person and the high concentration of wealth in society.

I, for one, totally deserved to be raised in a stable, loving household by two college educated adults in late 20th century America, didn't I?


P.S.
We've known for a long time that simply blindly investing in an unmanaged index fund will almost always beat a professional investor. However, we continue to pick stocks ourselves or trust some professional to make active decisions for us.  Isn't this just the stock market version of this same misconception?

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